E-Mobility – Closing the Emissions Gap

E-Mobility – Closing the Emissions Gap

Over the next five to ten years, passenger vehicle manufacturers will be confronted with regulatory pressure and material penalties as gains in fuel economy fall behind the required rates of improvement set to address environmental preservation and climate change mitigation. The fuel economy targets are expected to exceed forecasted new internal combustion engine powered passenger vehicle capabilities. This report examines to what extent electric vehicles (EV) − battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) − are the latest technologies to increase average fuel efficiency in the bid to close the emissions gap and meet stringent fuel economy standards. This new frontier represents a significant opportunity for the energy sector.

KEY FINDINGS

1. Fuel economy improvement targets of approximately 30 % for cars from 2014 to 2020 have been set by the European Union, US and China. These are the world’s largest car markets with collective annual demand of over 40 million passenger vehicles.

2. Electric vehicles currently represent less than 1% combined market share across the world’s largest car markets for new passenger cars. To achieve the fuel economy improvement targets, the combined market share for electric vehicles needs to increase to 16% by 2020. EVs should therefore be considered for a central role in any policy and technology portfolio designed to lower transport emissions.

3. The number of electric vehicle sales required to meet fuel economy targets for passenger cars is referred to as the “EV gap”. In the EU, the EV gap is 1.4 million (10% of the projected 2020 passenger car sales), in the US, it is closer to 0.9 million (11%), and in China, it is 5.3 million (22%).